Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 5 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 29 July 2026 at 02:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 7th strongest of the 257 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 21 July 2026. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 28 at 2:49PM EDT until July 28 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Urban PEI: 119,959 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 17 March 2026
- May 20, 2026 · score 43 · 1.1 km
- May 27, 2026 · score 43 · 14.8 km
- July 5, 2026 · score 43 · 15.4 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 39.1857, -75.6714 |
| Nearest City | Dover (13 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 120.0K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-28T18:49:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Watch_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1c09e7de07eacae49bd3945d8307ad6b |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-28T18:49:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-28T18:52:17.399Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Watch |
| Urgency | Future |
| Certainty | Possible |
| AreaDesc | District of Columbia, DC; Allegany, MD; Anne Arundel, MD; Baltimore, MD; Calvert, MD; Carroll, MD; Cecil, MD; Charles, MD; Frederick, MD; Harford, MD; Howard, MD; Montgomery, MD; Prince Georges, MD; St. Marys, MD; Washington, MD; Baltimore City, MD; Albemarle, VA; Arlington, VA; Augusta, VA; Clarke, VA; Culpeper, VA; Fairfax, VA; Fauquier, VA; Frederick, VA; Greene, VA; Highland, VA; King George, VA; Loudoun, VA; Madison, VA; Nelson, VA; Orange, VA; Page, VA; Prince William, VA; Rappahannock, VA; Rockingham, VA; Shenandoah, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; Warren, VA; City of Alexandria, VA; City of Charlottesville, VA; City of Fairfax, VA; City of Falls Church, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA; City of Harrisonburg, VA; City of Manassas, VA; City of Manassas Park, VA; City of Staunton, VA; City of Waynesboro, VA; City of Winchester, VA; Berkeley, WV; Grant, WV; Hampshire, WV; Hardy, WV; Jefferson, WV; Mineral, WV; Morgan, WV; Pendleton, WV; Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD; Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD; Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD; Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD; Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA; Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD; Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD; Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA; Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor; Chester River to Queenstown MD; Eastern Bay; Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River; Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD; Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island; Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE; Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 NM and 4 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 28 at 2:49PM EDT until July 28 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-07-28T22:00:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | false |
| MergedCount | 7 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1c09e7de07eacae49bd3945d8307ad6bdd19cfb4.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1c09e7de07eacae49bd3945d8307ad6bdd19cfb4.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.64cabf554fec17ff0f839fe2968b19ce3df12e9e.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.64cabf554fec17ff0f839fe2968b19ce3df12e9e.003.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.64cabf554fec17ff0f839fe2968b19ce3df12e9e.004.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.64cabf554fec17ff0f839fe2968b19ce3df12e9e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6b18c9ca804c9ca3fc4f4813b569744a4ed7fae5.002.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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